Study shows UK is vulnerable to future food crisis

Report maps systemic weak spots and emergency triggers, calling for a long-term, cross-government response to avert crisis and protect vulnerable households

Experts say the UK is unprepared to cope with shocks to its food system. Food shortages, price hikes, extreme weather, war and cyber-attacks could put extra pressure on already vulnerable parts of the system, increasing strain and instability.

A new study, compiled by food system experts from institutions including the University of York and Anglia Ruskin University, argues that long-standing structural issues leaves the UK dangerously exposed. It also offers strategies to improve food resilience and prevent such disruptions from escalating into a crisis.

Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, said: “The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security. While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.

“While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks, not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected. Understanding how the system might react to extreme pressure is the first step to preventing worst-case scenarios unfolding in the future.”

The study, which builds on the concept of systems thinking and could guide policymakers towards more resilient decision-making, offers a comprehensive, interconnected map of the UK food system, allowing the identification of key systemic weaknesses and crisis triggers, and strategies for prevention.

The report highlights how a major international conflict could instigate a chain reaction of trade disruptions, raised energy prices, disrupted agricultural and food supply chains, and increased food costs. The latter would disproportionately affect low-income households, limiting access to nutritious food, heightening food insecurity and potentially exposing them to food fraud and food-related illnesses. It could also lead to unrest and riots in the worst case, the study noted.

“…this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”

Dominic Watters, study contributor, said: “Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from a lack of calories alone...This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society. If we want a genuinely resilient and ‘ready’ United Kingdom, we cannot build it on systems of shame. That is why this study speaks to the importance of co-designing responses with communities disproportionately affected, rather than simply deciding for them.”

Other shocks, like cyber-attacks or extreme weather events, could have a similar cascading effect, either alone or in combination, the study found.

Professor Aled Jones, Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said: “The potential for events to trigger a food crisis is frequently underestimated. The UK is not immune to disruptions that can lead to severe consequences.

“Policymakers must adopt a long-term perspective to policy planning, and work across departments and wider food system stakeholders to ensure a whole-systems approach to addressing the problems.”

These interventions could include increasing UK energy security, expanding food value chains, and promoting more varied and resilient diets, the study stated.